Chances of online poker regulation getting pushed through the lame duck is basically a two-outer on the river now. Even the most optimistic estimate we’ve heard was only “around 20%.”
Not good. Although to paraphrase Lloyd Christmas, “So you’re saying there IS a chance?!”
Some believe next Tuesday is truly the line-in-the-sand day, and that it can still be attached to the tax bill in some form. Others believe that recent public messaging from Senator Reid and the AGA (welcome to the party!) shows there’s movement in the right direction and that it’s still a top agenda item during the last week of the lame duck.
Also, as noted earlier today, New Jersey is likely passing an intrastate online poker bill as early as Monday. California will soon follow. Then D.C. Then Nevada. So while that’s not the ideal scenario, the ball is rolling, and the Fed will have to get involved eventually.
Regardless, how did something that looked so close end up being so far away? As best we can ascertain (<–first use of that word in the history of WCP) here’s the prevailing wisdom:
- Senator Reid definitely wanted to attach the bill as payback to the Nevada casinos that got him reelected. Democrats’ inability to get on the same page on the tax bill though made it difficult to attach the Reid Bill.
- Nevada casinos may have gotten a little greedy in the bill’s provisions, causing more push-back then what would’ve occurred had the process been more open.
- In turn, this pissed off the Indians (they hated the bill). And in possibly the first ever instance of Indians-getting-back-at-the-white-man, they began a phone drive on their representatives and caused resistance.
- And oh yeah, the PPA, AGA, and all relevant parties shit the bed on getting aggressive in the mainstream media with a concise, coherent, and cohesive message to frame the debate.
And that’s that. In a sense, even if the bill is dead, it may see some new life in the near future.
We’ll wait till next Tuesday to declare our official Winners & Losers of the Reid Bill, but, assuming the bill really is dead, we’d like to hear your thoughts in the comments section. We’ll try to incorporate as many of those suggestions into our post.